Posts Tagged ‘disruption’

Evolution of a Coder, Developer, Technologist in a Given Technology or Coding Cycle!

Tuesday, December 11th, 2012

Inspired by a tweet by Vivek Wadhwa -

“What’s the shelf life of a techie? Just 15 years http://bit.ly/TRT8A5 — Good advice from India. Applies here also”

and by drawing on Dr. Clayton Christensen‘s work on disruptive innovation for companies/businesses, here are my thoughts.

This is article is spot on – without really qualifying the “5 years” as the period, a techie/developer has to evolve to the next stage of their career or risk being “irrelevant” in tech industry completely.

Note: In this post I am treating Language & Technology as one and the same even they are not. Both languages and technologies go through similar cycles;

If you take a slice of the talent pool at starting of this 5+5+5 cycle, and study how their careers are evolving in the next 15 years, one will find many interesting trends that validate some of my assumptions I published in this post.

At the start of cycle, qualifications for entering and picking a new technology or programming language is much lower and new graduates are willing to jump in for few reasons. There is less competition, less compensation and less expectation of quality.

Forces impact Coder / Developer’s ability to enter, learn & thrive coding languages and technologies

During the middle of the cycle, once the technology/programming language starts to mature, more and more people enter the foray, comp inflation creeps in and higher barriers for new entrants to enter into the space as early adopters become incumbents and experts. This is the hardest phase/cycle for fresh graduates and inexperienced professionals to enter in the cycle. So, either they struggle to get into the current coding cycle or try to look out for a technology cycle that is just about to start or completely abandon the developer world and pursue managerial & other adjacent careers.

Professionals who are in the 3rd phase of their current cycle (10 to 15 years), will inadvertently become irrelevant to enter into the new cycle either in Phase 1 or Phase 2 for various reasons. To enter in Phase 1, its too beneath their compensation expectation or visibility. Also, their age, family and financial constraints create additional barriers for them. To enter Phase 2 of the new cycle, these people have to compete with incumbents who entered in Phase 1 of this new cycle. So the challenge for people who are in Phase 3 of their career is they either have to either be at Executive level who can leverage their financial and social capital to continue to generate value for themselves or fall of the cliff to go into other verticals like real estate investments, venture capital, advisory services, etc.

So, for each individual, the best choice to enter into a particular Tech Cycle is not only based on timing but also their individual constraints – age, financial expectations, burn rate, social/family pressures and fundamental aptitude to be good at programming/technology leadership. So, it is a very subjective decision for each of us to enter, stay, thrive or stay away in any particular tech cycle.

Entry Level Candidates:

While it is tempting to enter into maturing technologies (cycle 2/phase 2) as there are many opportunities and also attractive compensation trends, it is best for them to enter into brand new technology cycles/new entrants. This allows for them to dictate the future of the emerging technologies; also make them incumbents when these new entrant coding languages/technologies become mature/established technologies. There is also huge risk for new grads to bet on unproven technologies and coding languages. If they end up entering into unproven coding languages that don’t take off, they not only are stuck in their career path but also missed out on other proven & successful languages/technologies (Phase 1 technologies) but also current mature languages/opportunities (Phase 2 technologies) where despite competition and compensation pressure opportunities still exists.

Mid Level Candidates:

Ideal situation for coders/developers is to become incumbents in a coding language by the time that language is in its cycle 2/phase 2 of its existence. They are able to command higher compensation despite high competition from entry level candidates. People who have natural aptitude for coding and programmering could try to hedge in the current Cycle 2 programming language as well as keep a close eye on newer languages that are in their cycle 1. In the language that is in cycle 2, assuming they have gained expertise, mid level candidates can thrive and command higher compensation and visibility.

Experienced Level Candidates:

These candidates have the greatest potential or greatest risk based on their expertise, knowledge and visibility in a particular coding language or technology. If these individuals grew with the language from its cycle 1, their potential to thrive is huge. If not, there is a risk of these professionals becoming irrelevant.

Evolution of Knowledge Democratization!

Saturday, May 12th, 2012

For 2000 years the cost of education and knowledge acquisition only goes up and up.

1980:

Enter Internet!

Early 2000s:

iTunes U give choices to Ivy leagues to lure more students via few freebee podcasts!

Rules of education are still the same!

2008:

Enter collective consumption!

Innovators start to realizes the it’s time we change the rules of the game – instead of managing for scarcity let’s manage for abundance!

KhanAcademy leads the charge!

2012 Current day:

Early adopters follow innovators!
Stanford, MITx, Purdue, Harvard start to make their courses available for free to the masses.

Stanford profs quit their tenure to start Coursera backed by KP in Silicon Valley!

Future:

All major Universities will take part in turning knowledge and education into utility!

Universities get restructured to fit this new model – where student gather knowledge for free but come to attend college for aspects that need face to face interaction, lab work, social skills, etc.

Basic knowledge and educational material repositories will be moved under one independent or govnt mandated organization.

A new age of learning begins where your knowledge gathering is not limited to a text book or a professors style.

In the age of abundance, student with Discipline and hard work will win!

Traditional colleges will continue to exist for student who lack discipline, attention and capabilities.

@Vsistla

Twitter Brand page & Facebook Fan Pages Ready to Eat #Google Lunch?

Friday, December 9th, 2011

After seeing Twitter Brand Pages & the work Facebook has been doing with Brands, it feels like #Google and #Yahoo banner & text advertising business is under huge threat. 

Twitter brand pages, while in their early days will get expanded to all content owners, destinations and portals – businesses who generate revenue via Ads and sponsorships. This means, content owners, portals and brands can make a bit of revenue through these sponsorships, banner & text ads – and Twitter would take a slice of that revenue. 

Similar thing is also happening with Facebook and Facebook pages. 

Which means some of the marketing $ that are going to traditional websites/portals/destinations will be diverted to Facebook & Twitter – which impacting Google’s Lunch. 

Are these early signs of Google’s demise? 

Just a thought ….

@Vsistla

Idea: Attach photos with location.

Monday, October 31st, 2011

I take photos when I get inspired by what I see – albeit my inspirations are not esthetic; I get inspired by the message in the image and the context. For some time I have been gathering and collecting photos w messages – and I post them in the stream #MessageDisconnect!

Most of the time I take photos and at a later point I post them to my stream. When I do this, I am not using any particular application like Instagram or Filckr! The problem with this is – the photos I took in the past are NOT attached to an exact location. This is a huge problem for me. I can select a location or type a business name, but it would NOT be 100% accurate. 

I wish there is a photo application out there – that not only allows me to tag a location to the photo, but also allows me to move that photo+location to any application or post it to any stream!

So, the use case is: 

UC-1 – Application allows users to take photos and attach location and personal tag to the metadata.

UC-2 – Application allows users to take photos+metadata out of the application to be post into a stream like upload to a blog post, or tumblr, or even to Instagram. 

Thank you

@Vsistla

Comparing Kindle Fire, iPhone & iPod – disruptive entries!

Thursday, September 29th, 2011

That’s right – its not a typo! @business_design @claychristensen @RobertWheeler27 I am not comparing Kindle Fire with iPad. I am comparing Kindle Fire’s entry into tablet market with iPod and iPhone from a disruptive entry standpoint. 

This is motivated by article published by Rob Wheeler- @RobertWheeler27 titled - http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2011/09/amazon_kindle_fire_scare_apple.html . 

Very interesting article – especially Rob talks about disruptive innovation – drawing from Clayton Christensen’s (@claychristensen) seminal work in this space. 

Rob is “right on” when he says Kindle Fire’s entry is a low end competitor to compete head on with iPad’s market share in future.  That is very much akin to when Apple introduced first generation iPhone without 3G or camera or any of the then “advanced” features offered by the then smart phones from Nokia and the like. There were umpteen articles and research published knocking first generation iPhone as a “pinch hit” to the then smart phones. It only took less than 5 years for iPhone to completely disrupt the smart phone market place. 

Most disruptions – especially those very well researched and documented by Christensen are low end disruptors which moved the up market and wiped out incumbents. 

BUT …then……. iPod is doozie 

If you look at the two “criteria” for disruptions, I feel iPod doesn’t fit that definition. iPod actually is a high end product that wiped out low end incumbents. People questioned why would anyone need that many gigabytes of storage on your mp3 player and why would anyone spend upwards of $200 for an MP3 player when all other MP3 players were available for sub $100 and in some case much less than $40. 

So, disruptions can also be brought with a high end innovation that will ultimately wipe out the market for low end products? Where will such disruptions fit into “Disruptive Innovation” theory?  

Thoughts? …..

@Vsistla

Garmin Cooks Up Mobile Swiss Army Knife

Monday, April 14th, 2008

Garmin is highly successful in what they have done so far – built an excellent brand and convenient solution to their target users. They just announced to offer Mobile TV and bunch of other features in their up coming product nuvi 900T and I think is a big mistake – and here is why.

Companies typically fail (typically being the operative word here) when they try to bring new features and functionality into their products without proper contextual and circumstantial usage analysis.

The biggest problem with technologist and innovative companies is they tend to offer features based on product attributes and demographic rather than “jobs-to-be-done”. Few Harvard researchers have concluded that circumstance based product evolution has a higher rate of success than attribute and demography based product evolution.

For example ….

When a user is using a particular product or device, that particular user is trying to get a job done for which he has “hired” that product to deliver that job. When I am waiting at airport, and quickly checking my email on my blackberry, I am trying to be productive in the limited amount of time I have, while I am waiting at the airport. I have “hired” my blackberry to help me get the job of “being productive while I am waiting in boredom” done. Similarly, I “hire” my blackberry or cell phone to make quick phone calls to be productive in my professional and personal life.

Marketers need to recognize the circumstance in which I am going to hire a particular product for a particular job. Continuing with the same blackberry example, when I don’t have any limitation of time or resources, I would hire my laptop or my work PC to check and send emails. For the same job of making call, I would hire my landline when at work, where as I would hire my cell phone or blackberry when I am away from my landline. Landline vs. mobile phone might be bad example outside the business environment, as most people are replacing their landline completely in their private life, but you get the point.

Harvard research concluded that …

Users “hire” products for jobs based on the context and circumstance in which they need to get those jobs done.

I would like to extend that theory further and say ….

Users are willing to pay incremental costs for features that help the “jobs” a particular product is hired to do.

Users would also be willing to have additional features without incremental cost and unwanted inconvenience to their present context or circumstance.

Just because I read my daily news on the Internet, I would not try to read news while I am driving. I get it from my audio/radio devices. At the same time, I could use my Bluetooth headset to talk on my blackberry while I am driving or not driving because hands free talking on the phone is not as dangerous as reading news on my blackberry while driving.

Who uses Garmin?

Ø People who are traveling to new places/locations where they need help with directions.

Ø Some people use it for places/locations that they are familiar with but challenged directionally.

Ø Some people use them to go from places they don’t know to places they know (for example returning home, etc)

What are the limitations of the context in which user’s use Garmin?

Ø Typically when you are driving and little concerned about your ability to navigate to your destination, your stress levels are higher than normal levels.

Ø “Typically” it is on the dashboard in the view of the driver. Driver is constantly switching between his view of the road/traffic and Garmin step by step directions. This gets little easy when you have voice activation.

Ø When you have voice activated navigation and it is not integrated with your car speakers/audio, you are limited to consume radio/music through your car speaker system.

Ø No matter how good Garmin’s navigational system is, drivers would like to reconfirm or revalidate their paths by speaking with someone in that neighborhood – gas stations, etc – as long as it is possible. Most of the time they call the destination host to revalidate their path.

Why use Garmin?

Ø People “hire” Garmin device for getting from point A to point B and for getting step-by-step voice activated directions.

Garmin is a highly differentiated product and the success of this product is directly dependent on how accurately it navigates its “hirers” to get to their destination in the least amount of time, avoid traffic jams and stress free journey.

What else can you offer Garmin “hirer” that help them in the context in which they use Garmin?

Ø Ability to customize frequent locations – such as home, office, day care, etc.

Ø Ability to do local business searches – restaurants, post office, police station, nearest gas stations, etc.

I believe Garmin and their competitors do offer above two benefits.

What else could Garmin offer to their “hirers”?

Ø Users could “hire” Garmin for navigating them in case of traffic jams and construction – dynamically instead of getting stuck in the gridlocks. Currently most of them offer detour option only if the users select voluntarily. Dynamic navigation based on the current traffic conditions could be a great feature to have. (am not sure if they offer this currently and I stand corrected if they already do)

Ø Users could “hire” Garmin for radio/news/music – mainly to those users who do not have integrated navigation systems. This way, users could hire Garmin for audio entertainment instead of having to “hire” their car audio systems. Garmin offers satellite radio. Some of the navigation systems offer MP3 capabilities but that doesn’t fit user’s usage context as most of the time people leave their nav devices in their cars and forget to load or reload music from their mp3 collection. I feel a radio to be a better feature than mp3 or Photo viewer.

Ø Garmin could let me make some phone calls while I am driving. We see lot of people “hiring” their mobile phones to talk while driving. When you use a cell phone along with Garmin’s voice activation, the user experience is not the best as both voices could overlap with each other. If you integrate calling service within Garmin, then voice feature could be integrated much more efficiently with the ongoing phone call (more though required here to define this user experience). Nuvi 900T offers this.

Ø Garmin competes with street maps, gas stations/seven eleven’s where user’s would pull into to get directions. If users are not completely happy with the navigation they are getting from their Garmin, Garmin could build a “direction helper” network with gas stations and businesses where store cashiers could take dynamically routed calls from Garmin users who are in their neighborhood to provide “human” navigation that would help the drivers have a stress free journey. Garmin could pay these “helper networks” per phone call they have received or on a monthly basis, while charge their own customers extra for this “premium” one of a kind navigation feature. “Helper network” could also offer additional suggestions from locals – offer suggestions based on their own experience of the neighborhood – best restaurants or safe neighborhoods or local entertainments.

Ø Garmin could compete with the likes of OnStar in providing roadside assistance to those users who do not have similar benefits from their car brands (esp. in the low-end car market).

Ø Garmin could offer location based services based on the time of day – such as Lunch/Dinner deals, rest room breaks, service station alerts, and so forth.

Garmin’s nuvi 900T comes with TV Player, audible player, picture viewer, FM radio, Music/MP3 player …. this is a Swiss army knife …..I question the quality of what it can deliver to me ….. all-in-one type of devices are not best suited in an emerging market place – it just dilutes their value prop. Potentially other handset vendors could replace Garmin as a navigation device. Everyone starts to copy everyone else’s features and functionality …..arms race to out do others …..

There are three questions here -

1. Is market really looking for a Swiss army knife type of device for these particular jobs? I don’t think people are clamoring to have mobile TV in their navigational device. There is definitely value in having hands free calling capabilities within a nav device. Not many people have really used the mp3 functionality in the existing nav devices. There is value in Radio/FM. I highly question the need of a photo viewer in this device.

2. Is this the right move for Garmin in particular? I personally think this will dilute their core value prop. Traditional handset vendors will flood Garmin’s vertical, a.k.a Nokia/Navtec followed by everyone else. Garmin and Nokia are trying to enter each other’s markets as a defensive strategy, end up doing feature arms race commoditizing their core products.

3. What else could they do to keep their value prop? Focus on additional other value add services within the nav vertical and provide a superior nav experience. Make it so hard for other traditional handset vendors to compete in the nav market – sort off become the iPod of mp3 market. No matter what Microsoft, Samsung and Sony offered, they couldn’t touch iPod market share. Garmin could do the same even if Nokia and the likes try to enter the nav market.

Here is another example of why companies should focus on the context in which their users use their products rather their technological capabilities ….

Apple did not include camera in their iPod even though technologically they could. Its been 5 years and many version of iPods, including iTouch doesn’t support a camera. Where as first version of iPhone comes with a camera. While people “hire” iPod for music and audio needs, they could potential take photos with the same device when there is a context for it, but “typically” one takes pictures/photos when you are in groups of two or more and most of the time people are using their digital cameras or camera phones. You also take photos when you are traveling but when you travel you also carry a digital camera with you. People carry their digital camera photos on their iPod by side loading. Providing iPod users with photo loading capabilities didn’t increase the cost of delivery for Apple and some users do make use of this functionality although that is the not the primary reason for them to carry their iPod. When the integration of camera feature into iPod does not significantly increase the cost of iPod, user would be ok with that feature. Since mobile cell phone users are already using camera functionality, it was critical for iPhone to enter the market with that feature.

iPod commands the highest premium in the mp3 player market even after 5 years of entering this market and the only reason they are able to do is by providing a superior product that is highly focused in delivering what it is hired to do.

In the evolution of a product or technology, one-size-fits-all type of products make sense only when the technology is completely mature. When the technology and markets are still emerging, one-size-fits-all doesn’t really provide a superior user experience. From a usability standpoint, creating undifferentiated products and doing arms race to add every possible technological feature to your product will lead companies towards a dangerous collision course and ultimately usher commoditization.

If one looks at user’s subjective value, a user would not want to pay for features they are not hiring that product to delivery. This triggers brand disloyalty. Worse, will make way for new entrants who could potential steal your unsatisfied customer base. Microsoft and its products are an example of this where they have so many features that majority of their users do not even use but end up paying for it since there is no other option. It is only a matter of time when new entrants will go after these unsatisfied and non-consumers.

So, when companies want to add features or functionality that do not fit the exact context or circumstance of usage, it is critical that companies do not penalize/charge the user for getting those unwanted features – from a cost and user experience standpoint.

For example, buying a Swiss army knife saves me space and number of devices to buy or carry. The drawback is only one person in my family can use it at a time. I am not in need of ALL the features Swiss Army Knife provides me. The screwdriver, knife and bottle opener do not work as efficiently as the respective standalone devices. Now, I have Swiss Army Knife as well as all the other standalone tools. So much for reducing space and carrying just one device …..

Note: Some of the inspiration came from Harvard Research, James Gibson’s seminal work on Visual Perception and Anthony Ulwick’s papers and articles.